Chinese Space Station Expected To Crash In Early 2018

Artist's rendition of a Shenzou spacecraft preparing to dock with Tiangong-1

Artist’s rendition of a Shenzou spacecraft preparing to dock with Tiangong-1 – Credit: China Manned Space Engineering

In September of 2011, China launched its first prototype space station. Tiangong-1 (translated into English: “Heavenly Palace 1”), was in operation until March 2016. During its operational history, it received three of visits by the China National Space Administration (CNSA). The unmanned Shenzou 8 docked with Tiangong-1 in November 2011, followed by two crewed missions: Shenzou 9 docked in June 2012, and Shenzou 10 in June 2013. China’s first two female astronauts participated in the crewed Shenzou missions to the space station: Liu Yang, China’s first woman in space, went up with Shnenzou 9, and Wang Yaping hitched a ride on Shenzou 10.

In March of 2016, CNSA announced that they had retired the station and included a vague comment about losing communications with Tiangong-1. Amateur astronomers observing the station began to suspect that CNSA had lost any ability to control the station; it had gone rogue. In September of 2016, CNSA admitted that they had no control over the space station and that they expected it to burn up in the Earth’s atmosphere by the end of 2017.

Previous and calculated future altitude of Tiangong-1

Previous and calculated future altitude of Tiangong-1 – Source: Aerospace.org

The Aerospace Corporation, a California nonprofit corporation that provides technical guidance and advice on space missions, predicts that Tiangong-1 will re-enter the Earth’s atmosphere between December 2017 and March 2018. In an interview with Newsweek, senior member of the technical staff for The Aerospace Corporation, Andrew Abraham stated that they track the “data closely and perform re-entry calculations on a regular basis to monitor any changes in the space station’s orbit or decay rate.”

The Aerospace Corporation has a webpage devoted to the Tiangong-1 re-entry, with a wealth of information, including a very informative FAQ.

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